Onlookers celebrate poll results in Madrid.[1]
Background
On Sunday, July 23, 2023, Spaniards braved unprecedented heat and raced to the polls to vote in the national election.[2] In May, the current Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, announced that he would call a snap election after a less-than-ideal performance in local and regional elections for his Socialist Workers’ Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español or “PSOE”).[3] Pedro Sánchez oversaw a caretaker administration from 2018 to January 2020, after a vote of no confidence brought down the previous conservative government. Sánchez and PSOE then created Spain’s first coalition government since its transition to democracy in the 1970s following Francisco Franco’s dictatorship.[4] Given the plural nature of a parliamentary system, coalition governments prevail when one party does not take the absolute majority. In this case, the coalition government, formed and led by PSOE in 2020, included support from the radical left party, Unidas Podemos, and polarizing Basque and Catalonian nationalist parties.[5] This coalition alienated many voters who did not favor the separatist Basque and Catalonian nationalist parties nor the policies of the far-left.[6] Today, Spain finds itself at a crossroads, as most voters seek an opportunity to return to centrist politics. Some experts argue the trend towards the center is rooted in the memory of deadly polarization of the Franco era and years violence from nationalist group terrorism.[7]
Campaign Strategies
In preparation for the July elections, Spain’s major political parties launched national campaigns rooted in a fight for democracy and fear of past traumas. Spain’s center right Popular Party (Partido Popular or PP) based their campaigns on anti-“Sanchismo” politics and benefited from this strategy, gaining significant control in May’s regional elections.[8] On the other hand, PSOE focused their national campaign on the fascist threat from the right, as PP currently face the possibility of forming a coalition with Vox, a far-right party calling for the “reconquest” of Spain and its conservative values, echoing the same sentiment that permeated through the dictatorship of Francisco Franco.[9] As stated by Omar G. Encarnació, Professor of Politics at Bard College, “both messages play into a larger story that sees the election as a contest between two polarized blocs, right and left, each housing extreme elements that will doom the country.”[10]
Election Results
As polling stations reported results on the evening of July 23rd, political commentators began playing the parliamentary numbers game and Spaniards once again faced the likely possibility of another coalition government.[11] Spain’s parliament consists of 350 seats; therefore, 176 seats are required to form a majority.[12] Currently, Spain’s center right and center left parties hold the most seats in parliament.[13] PP leads with 136 seats, followed by PSOE with 122.[14] The far right and left parties follow as Vox takes thirty-three seats and Sumar, the umbrella far left party, holds thirty-one seats.[15] The remaining twenty-eight seats are distributed among smaller regional parties.[16] PSOE and PP will have to garner enough support from the regional seats to reach a majority.
Graphic demonstrating majority seat threshold by party.[17]
The leader of PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, was formally asked by the King of Spain to form a coalition government.[18] However, a mere one week later, coalition-building failed. Sánchez rejected Feijóo’s proposal to assume leadership as Prime Minister for a two-year term contingent upon PSOE’s willingness to unite with PP to govern with a supermajority and merge center left with center right.[19] Spanish parliament is set to vote on Feijóo’s proposal to become prime minister at the end of September.[20] However, this is also likely to fail, at which point the King will allow Sánchez the opportunity to form a coalition.[21]
Political Identity and Past Cultural Wounds
Modern Spanish history remains tainted by Franco’s dictatorship and terrorism from extremist regional separatist groups.[22] Therefore, many Spaniards find themselves leaning towards the center, wishing away extreme influences in government.[23] Xavier Albiol, mayor of Badalona, Spain, said “due to the historical tradition of a dictatorship for 40 years, [Spain] has become a society where the majority of the population is not situated at the extremes.”[24] Spaniards are distracted from major problems, such as the labor market and climate change, now that PSOE faces a chance to form a governing coalition with enough votes from Catalonian separatists.[25] Former Spanish Foreign Minister, Arancha González Laya, says “we’ve had identity politics in the form of nationalist regional debates that have limited the ability to address important issues.”[26]
Unfortunately, given the nature of the parliamentary system, neither center-left nor center-right parties have enough votes to form a majority on their own. Spain is, once again, faced with two options: a coalition government or another round of elections. If neither party responds to the desire for a moderate majority, Spain will repeatedly find itself in a similar situation after yet another round of elections. As seen over the last few elections, Spaniards are more concerned about potential coalition forces than they are about PP and PSOE policies.[27] Pablo Simón, political scientist at Universidad Carlos III in Madrid said, “we are discussing about the partners,” further adding, “it’s a terrible thing because we are not discussing about policies.”[28]
The political paralysis in Spain implies not only a political reconciling among Spaniards, but also a reevaluation of democratic values in Europe. Spain is a young and vibrant democracy. However, this election shows how the majority, despite entrenched constitutional values, can be impacted, and potentially governed, by far-right populist trends and extreme separatist agendas. This, therefore, begs the question: how will Spanish forces in politics, culture, and law learn to process generational traumas and historic memory in a cohesive manner to efficiently govern in the future?
Part Two of this series will analyze how Spain can tap into existing legal frameworks of cultural reconciliation for governing.
[1] Oscar Del Pozo, People celebrate poll results Sunday night in Madrid (June 23, 2023). https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/23/spain-elections-vox-europe/. [2] Anthony Faiola and Beatriz Ríos, Spain vote leaves hung parliament, The Washington Post (June 23, 2023), https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/23/spain-elections-vox-europe/. [3] Emma Bubola and Jason Horowitz, Spanish Prime Minister Calls Snap Elections for July, New York Times (May 29, 2023). https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/world/europe/spain-snap-election.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article. [4] Raphael Minder, Pedro Sánchez Will Lead Modern Spain’s First Coalition Government, New York Times (Jan. 7, 2020) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/world/europe/spain-pedro-sanchez-government.html. [5] Id. [6] Jason Horowitz, Inconclusive Election Thrusts Spain Into Political Muddle, New York Times (July 23, 2023). https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/23/world/europe/spanish-election-inconclusive-results.html. [7] Jason Horowitz, Far Right May Rise as Kingmaker in Spanish Election, New York Times (July 22, 2023, last updated July 25, 2023). https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/22/world/europe/spains-election-extremes.html?searchResultPosition=7. [8] Supra, note 2. [9] Id. [10] Omar G. Encarnació, Spain Is Going to be Fine, New York Times (July 20, 2023), https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/opinion/spain-election-sanchez-vox.html?searchResultPosition=1. [11] Martín González Gómez and Lauren Leatherby, Spain General Election Results, New York Times (July 23, 2023) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/23/world/europe/results-spain-election.html?searchResultPosition=2. [12] Supra, note 5. [13] Supra, note 10. [14] Id. [15] Id. [16] Id. [17]Martín González Gómez and Lauren Leatherby, Spain General Election Results, New York Times (July 23, 2023) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/23/world/europe/results-spain-election.html?searchResultPosition=2. [18] Paul Dallison, Spain’s king asks conservative leader Feijóo to form government, Politico (Aug. 22, 2023) https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-king-alberto-nunez-feijoo-form-government/. [19] Aitor Hernández-Morales, Spain’s Feijóo asks Sánchez to let him be prime minister for two years, Politico (Aug, 30, 2023) https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-election-alberto-nunez-feijoo-pedro-sanchez-prime-minister-two-years/. [20] Id. [21] Id. [22] Supra, note 9. [23] Id. [24] Supra, note 6. [25] The Washington Post Editorial Board, Spain is held hostage by a faction of breakaway regional extremists, The Washington Post (Aug. 31, 2023) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/31/spain-elections-sanchez-puigdemont/. [26] Id. [27] Jason Horowitz, In Spain’s Election, Left and Right Answer for the Company They Keep, New York Times (July 21, 2023). https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/world/europe/spain-election-partners.html?searchResultPosition=3. [28] Id.
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